The Josh Lafazan Show

The Josh Lafazan Show on YouTube - Episode 97

Episode Notes

America Headed for RECESSION? What It Means for U.S. Economy 

The Josh Lafazan Show on YouTube - Episode 97

On this episode of The Josh Lafazan Show, Josh dives deep into the warning signs flashing across the U.S. economy—and why some of the sharpest financial minds in the country are sounding the alarm. With Trump’s economic approval ratings slipping fast, Josh asks the critical question: Is America barreling toward a recession?

Here’s what you need to know:

🔹 The Experts Are Warning—and They're Not Partisan.
From Jamie Dimon to Larry Summers, Bill Ackman, Stan Druckenmiller, and Ray Dalio, top business leaders and investors—many of them lifelong conservatives—are in rare agreement: Trump’s reckless tariff policies are putting the U.S. economy on a dangerous path.

• Jamie Dimon called a recession the “best case” outcome.
  
   
• Larry Summers warned of 2 million Americans potentially losing their jobs.
  
   
• Bill Ackman cautioned we’re facing an “economic nuclear winter.”
  
   
• Stan Druckenmiller and Ray Dalio both fear a deeper, more catastrophic downturn if Trump stays the course.
  
   

🔹 The Tariffs Are Backfiring.
As Josh explains, Trump’s sweeping tariffs are hurting business sentiment, raising costs for American consumers, and jeopardizing global trade relationships. A Reuters poll found that 92% of economists said the tariffs are having a negative effect—none said they were positive.

🔹 Trump's Economic Standing Is Crumbling.

• Trump’s overall approval rating is now underwater, with 53% disapproving of his job performance.
  
   
• Voters overwhelmingly believe Trump’s tariffs are hurting the economy—by a margin of more than 3 to 1, according to Quinnipiac.
  
   
• Crucially, Trump is hemorrhaging support among young voters, with a stunning 34-point drop in approval among those under 30 since he took office.
  
   

🔹 The Recession Risks Are Real.
Josh breaks down what a recession actually means—two consecutive quarters of falling GDP—and shows how the fundamentals are weakening:

• Consumer debt delinquencies are climbing to levels not seen since the 2008 crisis.
  
   
• A stock market correction could erase the wealth effect that has kept consumer spending afloat.
  
   
• Higher costs from tariffs are squeezing households already strained by years of inflation.
  
   
• Global instability is growing, with Europe bracing for its own trade wars.
  
   

🔹 Context Matters: The Economy Was Strong Before.
Under Biden, the U.S. economy saw historic strength:

• 30 of the past 38 months had unemployment at or below 4%.
  
   
• Household wealth hit record highs relative to income.
  
   
• The U.S. led the world in productivity even during a global slowdown.
  
   

Trump inherited an economic boom—and now he’s putting it all at risk with a trade war that economists say is a dangerous echo of the disastrous Smoot-Hawley tariffs that helped trigger the Great Depression.

🔹 Trump’s Choices Could Worsen the Pain.
Trump’s threats to reimpose tariffs on the EU—and the potential collapse of global trade—could magnify the economic pain just as Americans are struggling most with inflation and rising costs.

Josh wraps the episode with a clear message:

“The warnings are real. The risks are mounting. And the consequences of ignoring them could be devastating—not just politically, but for millions of American families trying to get by.”